Is Boeing’s MAX Problem an Opportunity?
This is the first article in my Flight of Fancy series where I put forward possibly outlandish ideas for the aviation industry.
The Boeing 737 MAX saga is well documented. A plane that was designed as a reaction to the Airbus A320Neo series, now beset with a PR nightmare of a problem rooted in some poorly tested software that was designed to overcome a problem with physics. You know all about it by now, so I will refrain from repeating more details. What’s more important is the scenario going forward. How, you might ask, is this reputation crisis an opportunity?
A Three Plane problem
The issues with the MAX actually compound a rather tough situation for Boeing. Their entire product lineup of planes smaller than the 787 Dreamliner are in need of help. These are the aforementioned 737 MAX, the 757 and 767. The latter two are both essentially out of production, with 757 deliveries ending in 2005 and the 767 currently being produced in cargo variants only. This means that, as of writing, Boeing cannot deliver a plane with less than 240 seats. The 787–8, the smallest Dreamliner, lists with a 242 seat capacity in a 2-class configuration. Considering the market between 150 and 200 seats draws the most customers of any aircraft size, this, we can all agree, is a rather monumental challenge for the company. Boeing’s own forecast for 2019–2038 suggests demand for 32,240 single aisle jets vs 8,340 widebody aircraft. In dollar terms, single aisle aircraft account for 55% of predicted demand at $3775 billion vs $2630 billion for the widebody market. As you will read, my solution covers parts of both the single-aisle and widebody market, thus offering a potential goldmine for Boeing to tap.
One Plane, Two wings, Three Engines
The crux of my suggestion is this: Boeing could design one plane to solve nearly all of its problems in the space as described above. With the arrival of ultra-high bypass jet engines that offer power and efficiency, Boeing may be able to address the market in a way that would thwart the recent successes of the Airbus A321 family with its Long Range and Extra Long Range versions. Let’s call that the 797, a name that’s been used in many future-predicting articles, so definitely not original.
This new 797 will be a single aisle aircraft available with 3 body lengths and 2 wing designs. The smallest and middle models will be optimized for the short to medium haul market, currently served by the 737 MAX, whereas the large version with the larger wing will be aimed at the thin-and-long market, that is a relatively small plane that can fly long-haul routes. Different wings would probably be needed for increased lift and efficiency required on long-haul routes. The smaller variants would be lighter and have smaller fuel tanks, thus be more efficient on shorter domestic routes, whereas the larger variant would be optimized for long-range cruising. The idea of two different wing designs is not as far fetched as it might seem. Boeing’s own 767 has different wings for the -200/-300 series compared to the -400 series.
From a fuselage length perspective, the three variants would cover the range between ~130 ft and ~180 ft thus covering the bulk of the short haul, high density market, yet offering long-haul comfort in less dense configurations designed to address that very market that Boeing is currently missing out on.
On the engine front, the smaller variants could share an engine size with lower and higher thrust outputs, whereas the larger variant might require a larger engine. Again, this is not an odd idea. Boeing’s 777 has smaller engines for the -200 version and larger ones for the LR/F/300ER versions.
With a clean-slate design, Boeing has the opportunity to provide excellent running costs and a modern aircraft with common crew requirements. This is the ultimate kicker for such a plan. Being able to optimize your crew strategy is something that airlines are always aiming to do. A single aircraft type would offer this excellent advantage.
From a passenger experience point of view, larger windows, a slightly wider fuselage than the A321 and larger overhead bins are three low-hanging fruit that any new design would be able to achieve easily. Other technological advancements from the past couple of decades can also be incorporated into a new airframe. As an example, we’ve seen how the Bombardier C-Series, now Airbus A220, has won many fans by offering that size segment of the market a feel of spaciousness and modernity.
To summarize, the new Boeing 797 family would look like this:
1. 797–1 : 180 seats in a domestic configuration, ~4000 nautical mile range, ~130 ft fueslage length.
2. 797–2: 210 seats in a domestic configuration, ~4000 nautical mile range, 150 ft fuselage length.
3. 797–3: 230 seats in a domestic configuration, <200 seats in a long haul spec, ~5500 nautical mile range.
In Conclusion
With almost every difficult situation, it is possible to find creative and meaningful solutions. Boeing is currently very much a company in crisis when it comes to the smaller size market in their portfolio. The company needs to be aggressive, rather than passive in dealing with this conundrum. When the technologically advanced 787 came into service, it was a tough and painful launch for Boeing with a lot of the new technologies proving troublesome. Yet, today, the Dreamliner is championed as a wonderful aircraft, offering airlines flexibility while passengers enjoy the modern comforts it offers. It is also a huge sales success for the company with nearly 1000 built so far in about 8 years of production. Boeing needs to be similarly courageous with its new plane and enter the next decade boldly looking forward. With the Airbus-Boeing duopoly currently dictating the state of the airline industry, any new move from Boeing would fundamentally change the way we fly in the years to come. A new aircraft family would push Airbus to innovate as well. A win-win situation for us passengers.
Your move, Boeing.
